文献速递｜新冠肺炎疫情下2020年全球疟疾超额发病和死亡情况

Millions of excess cases and thousands of excess deaths of malaria occurred globally in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic

Qiao Liu, Wenxin Yan, Chenyuan Qin, Min Du, Min Liu, Jue Liu#

DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05045

近日，北京大学公共卫生学院刘珏研究员团队在Journal of Global Health杂志发表原始研究，估计了新冠肺炎疫情下2020年全球疟疾超额发病和死亡数量。

该研究于2022年12月24日，被MalariaWorld（https://www.malariaworld.org/）引用。

ABSTRACT

Background The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted malaria-related health care services, leading to an excess burden of malaria. However, there is a lack of research on the indi- rect global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria. We aimed to assess the excess burden of malaria due to the COVID-19 pandemic in malaria-endemic countries in 2020.

Methods Based on data from the World Health Organization Global Observatory, we used estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) from 2000 to 2019 (model A) and from 2015 to 2019 (model B) to predict the malaria burden in 2020. We calculated the ratios between reported and predicted malaria incidence (incidence rate ratio (IRR)) and mortality rates (mortality rate ratio (MRR)).

Results In 2020, African countries suffered the most from malaria, with the largest number of malaria cases (64.7 million) and deaths (151 thousand) observed in Nigeria. Most countries showed a decrease in malaria incidence and mortality rates from 2000 to 2019, with the strongest decline in incidence rates in Bhutan (EAPC=-35.7%, 95% CI=-38.7 to -32.5%) and mortality rates Ecuador (EAPC=-40.6%, 95% confidence in- terval (CI) = -46.6 to -33.8%). During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, there was a total of 18 million excess malaria cases and 83291 excess deaths per model A, and 7.4 mil- lion excess cases and 33 528 excess deaths per model B globally. Malaria incidence rates increased excessively in over 50% of the malaria-endemic countries, with the greatest increase in Costa Rica (IRR=35.6) per model A and Bhutan (IRR=15.6) per model B. Mortality rates had increased excessively in around 70% of the malaria-endemic coun- tries, with the greatest increase in Ecuador in both model A (MRR=580) and model B (MRR = 58).

Conclusions The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic indirectly caused an increase in the prevalence of malaria and thwarted progress in malaria control. Global efforts to control the pandemic’s impact should be balanced with malaria control to ensure that the goal for global malaria elimination is achieved on time.